In Zimbabwe’s economy, cotton is an important part. The cotton industry provides jobs and income for many smallholder farmers. Cotton is also a key export product. However, the country faces many challenges, such as global cotton price fluctuations and unpredictable weather patterns. Out of all of these, climate change is the most threatening one. It makes the overall challenges even worse. It mainly affects the growth of cotton. To stay ahead and not give up, Zimbabwe must face and overcome these challenges. Increasing local cotton processing is one of the ways to add value to the crop. This can reduce the country’s reliance on imported cotton and also support textile growth.

Zimbabwe has untapped potential in organic cotton farming. This can attract eco-conscious buyers in global markets. Organic cotton is in demand and can open new opportunities. Improving both cotton production and consumption can strengthen agriculture. This will help stabilize the economy. It will reduce dependence on global price trends. By creating value-added products, Zimbabwe can expand its export potential. This will benefit the country’s economy and create new opportunities in global markets. This blog discusses the detailed production of cotton during 2012-2022 and its consumption.

1. Cotton Production

• Analysis of Cotton Production (2012-2022)

1. Notable Highlights include- a sharp decrease in production between 2012 and 2013, a similar decrease in production between 2014 and 2016, a rebound from 2017-2018, improvements and demotions between 2019 and 2022
2. Obstacles influencing the production of cotton during the years 2012 to 2022
3. Overall Pattern (2012-2022)

• Area Under Cotton Production (2012-2021)

1. Notable Highlights include 2012 (Highest Year), 2013-2016 (Big Drop), 2017-2018 (Some Recovery), 2019 (Another Drop), 2020-2021 (Big Growth)
2. Overall Trend(2012-2021)
3. What Happened Over the Years- 2012 (Best Year), 2013 (Big Drop), 2014-2015 (Some Improvement), 2016–2017 (Hardest Years), 2018 (Getting Better), 2019–2020 (More Problems),  2021 (Small Improvement)
4. Reasons for the Decline in Cotton Production
5. Overall Trend

2. Cotton Consumption

3. Export of “Cotton, not carded or combed” (commodity group 5201)

• Overview of Zimbabwe’s Exports of Cotton (5201) in 2023
• Share of Cotton Exports in Zimbabwe’s Total Exports
• Cotton Exports in the Context of Zimbabwe’s Cotton Industry
• Export Destinations of Zimbabwe’s Cotton (5201)
• Composition of Exports in Commodity Group 5201
• Where does Zimbabwe export Cotton, not carded or combed?
• Exports Structure of 5201 – Cotton, not carded or combed

4. Import of “Cotton, not carded or combed” (commodity group 5201)

• Overview of Zimbabwe’s Cotton Imports (5201) in 2023
• Share of Cotton Imports in Zimbabwe’s Total Imports
• Cotton Imports in the Context of Zimbabwe’s Total Imports
• Import Sources of Zimbabwe’s Cotton (5201)
• Composition of Imports in Commodity Group 5201

Analysis of Cotton Production (2012-2022)

Figure: This graph depicts the production of cotton from 2012 to 2022. The real figures of production are shown by the blue solid line, while in general, the dotted line trend indicates an increase or decrease in production over the years.

Notable Highlights:

1. A sharp decrease in production between 2012 and 2013

• Cotton production was highest at around 350,703 tonnes in the year of 2012.

• The production decreased by 60% within a single year in 2013, resulting in the production of only 143,849 tonnes.

2. Similar decrease in production between 2014 To 2016

• 2014: Similar to 2013 in production value. Now it stands at 143,098 tonnes.
• 2015: Decreased production value again and hit 104,988 tonnes.
• 2016: The lowest recorded production value in multiple decades was recorded for this year, 28,598 tonnes.

3. Rebound from 2017-2018

• 2017: We do see a recovery from the low previously stated to now 73,053 tonnes.
• 2018: It increases further to 143,835 tonnes, which is consistent with the values for 2013 and 2014.

4. Improvements and demotions between 2019 and 2022

• 2019: Another decline from 143835 to 76430 tonnes.
• 2020: Some improvement to 91712 tonnes.
• 2021: Another shift towards the peak at 137762 tonnes, which was a consequence of an increase in demand.
• 2022: Production drop was significant once again to 54262 tonnes.

Cotton production during this time experienced a downfall due to the following reasons: 

• Severe droughts and poor weather led to a drastic decrease in rainfall, which further led to a decrease in the overall yield of crops. 

• With a significant drop in the price that the producers were getting, cotton farming became a lot less lucrative, which demotivated farmers to grow this crop.
• There was also a problem of input delivery being supplied to farmers too late, which resulted in lower productivity due to missing seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. 
• Withdrawal of contractors also led to firms or buyers abandoning contracts, which reduced the benefits offered to farmers. 
• Persistent limitations and a lack of resources drove farmers to abandon the cotton sector.

The dotted trendline means a slow drop in the production of cotton in the long run. While there were some attempts for recovery, the production of cotton was on a dropping route.

Area Under Cotton Production (2012-2021)

Figure:This graph gives an easy understanding of how much land was used for the growth of cotton from 2012 to 2021. The solid line represents the actual land area each year, while the dotted line shows the general direction of change over time.

Notable Highlights:

• 2012 (Highest Year): Farmers grew cotton on a large area, covering 432,901 hectares. It was the most during this period.
• 2013-2016 (Big Drop): The land used for cotton decreased sharply, reaching 75,000 hectares in 2016. This may have happened due to challenges like bad weather, low earnings, and farmers switching to other crops.
• 2017-2018 (Some Recovery): The area started increasing again, reaching 207,786 hectares in 2017 and 263,717 hectares in 2018. This suggests that more farmers felt confident enough to return to cotton farming.
• 2019 (Another Drop): The land declined once more, dropping to 170,622 hectares. This shows that cotton farming remained unstable and unpredictable.
• 2020-2021 (Big Growth): The area expanded again, reaching 386,785 hectares in 2021. This could mean that more farmers backed off. This is mostly possible due to better financial support or better market conditions.

The Presidential Cotton Input Scheme has also contributed a lot to the expansion of the areas under cultivation recently. Costs of input, contractor withdrawals, and farmer withdrawals based on reducing production prices are all reasons for the reduction in the area’s production.

Even though the fast changes show that cotton cultivation has had major problems and recoveries over the years, the dotted trendline shows a mostly stable long-term trend.

Figure:  This graph gives an idea of how much cotton was produced per hectare (KG/HA) from 2012 to 2021. The solid bars show the actual amounts each year, while the dotted line helps visualize the general pattern over time.

• 2012 (Best Year): Farmers harvested 810 KG/HA, the highest in this period.
• 2013 (Big Drop): Productivity fell sharply to 595 KG/HA, possibly because of bad weather, pests, or fewer benefits for farmers.
• 2014-2015 (Some Improvement): Yields went up again, reaching 710 KG/HA in 2014 and 716 KG/HA in 2015. This might mean farming conditions got better or farmers got more support.
• 2016–2017 (Hardest Years): These were very tough years for cotton farmers. Production dropped to 381 KG/HA in 2016 and then to 351 KG/HA in 2017. Farmers struggled with drought, poor seeds, less fertilizer, and fewer people growing cotton.
• 2018 (Getting Better): Cotton farming improved. Production rose to 545 KG/HA.
• 2019–2020 (More Problems): Farmers still faced challenges. Yields fell to 449 KG/HA in 2019 and 383 KG/HA in 2020.
• 2021 (Small Improvement): Things got a little better. Production went up to 546 KG/HA. This may be due to better weather, good seeds, or government help.

• Drought and a lack of rainfall reduced cotton yields.
• Cotton crops were affected by plant diseases, leading to lower productivity.
• Unpredictable weather, like extreme temperatures and irregular rainfall, disrupted growth.
• Fewer workers during important times (weeding and picking) made harvesting less efficient.
• Old cotton plant regrowth (ratoon cropping) caused lower yields and poor-quality fiber.

A drop in productivity over time is shown by the dotted trendline. The overall productivity per hectare has declined despite small recoveries, indicating that the cotton industry continues to face difficulties.

The total domestic cotton lint consumption for the 2017/18 MY is expected to be 9,800 MT (44,982 480lb bales). The consumption for the 2016/17 MY is estimated at 8,000 MT (36,720 480lb bales). In the 2015/16 MY, the consumption was recorded at 4,800 MT (22,032 480lb bales).

Zimbabwe’s textile and clothing sector includes three main areas: cotton production and ginning, turning lint into yarn and fabric, and making garments from fabric and yarn. However, many textile mills are closing due to high production costs and cheap imported clothing and fabrics. The sector also faces challenges like outdated technology, low productivity, and a lack of investment.  

Overview of Zimbabwe’s Exports of Cotton (5201) in 2023

• Total Export Value:
  In 2023, Zimbabwe exported cotton (commodity group 5201) worth $31 million.
• Decline in Exports:
  There was a 22% drop in exports compared to 2022, when the value was $41 million. This means there was a decrease of $9.43 million.

Share of Cotton Exports in Zimbabwe’s Total Exports

• Percentage of Total Exports:
  Cotton exports (commodity group 5201) made up 0.441% of Zimbabwe’s total exports in 2023, which were worth $7.22 billion.
• Year-on-Year Change in Share:
  This percentage dropped by 0.186 percentage points compared to 2022, when it was 0.627% (with total exports worth $6.58 billion).

Cotton Exports in the Context of Zimbabwe’s Cotton Industry

• Percentage of Total Cotton Exports:
  In 2023, 91% of all cotton exports from Zimbabwe were in commodity group 5201. The total value of cotton exports was $34 million.
• Year-on-Year Change in Cotton Export Share:
  The share of commodity group 5201 in total cotton exports increased by 1.06 percentage points, from 90% in 2022, when total cotton exports were $45 million.

Export Destinations of Zimbabwe’s Cotton (5201)

• Top Export Destination:
  In 2023, Zimbabwe only exported cotton (commodity group 5201) to South Africa, which made up 100% of the cotton exports, worth $31 million.

Composition of Exports in Commodity Group 5201

• Export Structure:
  All of the $31 million in exports for commodity group 5201 in 2023 came from subcategory 520100 – Cotton, not carded/combed, which represents 100% of these exports.

Where does Zimbabwe export Cotton, not carded or combed?
In 2023, Zimbabwe only exported Cotton, not carded or combed to South Africa, accounting for 100% of the exports, worth $31 million.

Exports Structure of 5201 – Cotton, not carded or combed:
The entire $31 million in exports came from the subcategory 520100 – Cotton, not carded/combed, making up 100% of the exports in commodity group 5201.

Overview of Zimbabwe’s Cotton Imports (5201) in 2023

• Total Import Value:
  Zimbabwe imported “Cotton, not carded or combed” (commodity group 5201) worth $4.33 thousand in 2023.
• Increase in Imports:
  Imports of this cotton product increased by 7.32% compared to 2022. The increase was $295, from $4.04 thousand in 2022.

Share of Cotton Imports in Zimbabwe’s Total Imports

• Percentage of Total Imports:
  Imports of commodity group 5201 made up 0.125% of Zimbabwe’s total imports in 2023. The total imports were valued at $3.46 million.
• Year-on-Year Change in Share:
  The share of cotton in total imports went down by 0.022 percentage points from 2022. In 2022, it was 0.147%, and total imports were valued at $2.74 million.

Cotton Imports in the Context of Zimbabwe’s Total Imports

• Imports of Commodity Group 5201:
  The total value of imports for commodity group 5201 in 2023 was $4.33 thousand. This all came from subcategory 520100 – Cotton, not carded/combed, which made up 100% of the imports in this group.

Import Sources of Zimbabwe’s Cotton (5201)

• Top Import Sources:
  Zimbabwe’s main suppliers of cotton in 2023 were:

• South Africa: 61% share ($2.67 thousand)

1. USA: 33% share ($1.44 thousand)
2. China: 4.9% share ($212)
3. United Arab Emirates: $4.11

Composition of Imports in Commodity Group 5201

• Import Structure:
  All of the imports in commodity group 5201 for 2023, worth $4.33 thousand, came from the subcategory 520100 – Cotton, not carded/combed. This made up 100% of the imports in this group.

Zimbabwe’s agricultural economy and industry are really dependent on cotton production and consumption. Both of these have a major impact on the employment of workers and the economy. While Zimbabwe still stands to be a significant cotton producer in the region, it faces challenges and problems like climate change and unpredictable shifts in prices. To sustain growth, these issues need to be addressed. Increasing local cotton processing and reducing imports will enhance the crop’s value and help expand Zimbabwe’s textile industry. By boosting both production and consumption, Zimbabwe can strengthen its agriculture, stimulate economic growth, and open up new opportunities in both domestic and global markets.

FAQ

What can Zimbabwe do to be competitive in the global cotton market?
Stay competitive. Investing in sustainable farming techniques and practices, with the exploration of potential organic cotton, can be done by Zimbabwe. The improvement of quality cotton production and expansion of processing capabilities can help Zimbabwe stay competitive. Moreover, giving better incentives to farmers and strengthening of textile industries will support long-term growth and improvement. 

What are the benefits of increasing local cotton processing in Zimbabwe?

Increased local cotton processing can add value to the crop and lower the need for textiles that are imported. This would boost the domestic textile industry, create job opportunities and employment, and enhance the value of exported cotton. Moreover, it could improve the overall economy of Zimbabwe by keeping more revenue within the country.